Regarding the Russo-Ukrainian war, the Russo-Ukrainian war now seems to have turned into a low-intensity, long-term war of attrition, which will continue, and it has become a boring thing that happens every day in the world news, and nobody pays much attention to the Russo-Ukrainian war.
This thing slowly evolved into the more than two years before the United Kingdom left the European Union, the news had to report Brexit every day, but this thing repeated, all the news was boring. The Russo-Ukrainian war was a bit more intense, but then it slowly turned into another form of Brexit, the news was long, the story was boring, the audience was less willing to listen, and the news media was less willing to use it to attract readers.
In this situation, the Ukrainian counteroffensive that has been rumored for a long time, whether it is a spring counteroffensive or a summer counteroffensive, has not been carried out so far, and has not seen a little splash, indicating that everyone is very, very tired. The front lines should have been fortified and deadlocked. The Russian side may only want those four states, other places do not want, and will not move forward, but the Ukrainian side can not fight down, and it is trapped in a situation like this.
Therefore, I personally think it is impossible to sign a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, because they have completely different statements about the four states.
For Russia, it took hundreds of years and countless lives to seize Crimea, first from the Ottoman Turks, who did not know how many people died and fought many battles to seize Crimea, so it is impossible for Russia to give up Crimea, which is Russia's outpost in Europe.
As for the other states in the east, because they are all Russian, it is also for Russia to get back its rightful land. But in the case of Ukraine, after the collapse of the [Soviet Union], Ukraine has legally divided these lands. Legally, Ukraine considers this to be my land, so there can be no compromise.
I don't think there will be a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine based on the basic condition that there will be no concessions from either side, and my view is that it will eventually turn into something like the Korean War, which will turn into an armistice. Until the two sides can't fight anymore, then they sign an armistice agreement, but they don't sign a peace agreement, and occasionally there is a little friction, a little confrontation.
The final pattern that we will see is that the Russian map will put those places on its national map, Ukraine will insist on putting those places on its map, and the two armies will continue to face off over there, but then there may be a stalemate, and there will be a truce, which is my personal view.
Perhaps both the US and Russia will declare victory. Russia says we finally got these states, the United States will say we helped Ukraine stop the Russian invasion, Ukraine will say in the middle that those states are still ours, we may have to continue to resist, and it will probably end up like this.
Because the 2024 US election is coming, the US side has to focus on the internal election of the whole country. According to a habit we have seen in the United States government before, as long as the Democratic Party comes to power, there will be a bigger war, and in these 10 years and 20 years, there will be a war when the Democratic Party comes to power.
Including this time, if Trump is in office, there will be no war between Russia and Ukraine, but if the Democratic Party takes office, there will be a war between Russia and Ukraine. If Trump is successful in the final reelection, then the most important things that Trump is likely to do after coming up is to get a cease-fire between the United States and Russia, not necessarily a peace agreement, but a cease-fire.
During this period of time, one of the biggest job points for the Democratic Party is to prevent the Republican Party from seizing power and prevent Trump from seizing power. After more than a year of changes, the newly emerging forces of the Republican Party that we had originally placed our hopes on are now no match for Trump. If there is no accident, then the final is still Trump against Biden, and this time Trump temporarily sees the chance of victory is still a little larger, for the time being, not guaranteed, because there will be random fluctuations.
So now the entire Democratic Party must focus on dealing with Trump and preventing him from undermining their global strategy. The Democratic Party has a very distinct global strategy, it is systematic. It also has a lot of think tanks and people behind it who are maintaining this strategy. But why do they hate Trump so much? Because Trump went on a rampage. Trump has no strategy, he only has a general idea of what he wants to do, but he will not develop a very detailed strategy and system like the Democratic Party, so he will change the strategy that the Democratic Party has developed at will when he comes to power.
This is what the Democrats hate most about Trump on international issues, is that he does not follow the steps, does not follow the system, does not follow the idea, so they will prevent Trump from coming to power to undermine their strategy, including Trump's previous sabotage of their so-called global Allies.
The international system that the United States now inherits actually originated in Britain. The focus of the entire system is to control the global shipping lanes, and focus on controlling the entire Western Europe, so that the entire Western Europe and Eastern Europe present a pattern of confrontation, so that Europe is not unified, so that the Middle East is not unified, this is the United States' big system of diplomatic strategy.
However, after Trump came to power, he destroyed the strategy of the Democratic Party, so we think that if the United States wants to prevent Trump from destroying their broader strategy, it should focus on the domestic campaign, and Trump's various crimes and various other things may be more serious.
If nothing happens on the Russian side, Putin should be elected again. Since there is no one or thing that can challenge him now, there should be no problem for Putin to be successfully elected in 2024, but it is not clear when to sit until now, nominally until 2032.
Therefore, I personally believe that the war between Russia and Ukraine will end in a ceasefire agreement, not a peace agreement. In the second half of this year or the first half of next year, then the United States must focus all on the domestic, this time the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will be more tame, and the final result must be Russia's control of this territory, Ukraine does not recognize this territory. At the same time, the United States and Russia will complete their political transition, probably within a year or two.
This thing slowly evolved into the more than two years before the United Kingdom left the European Union, the news had to report Brexit every day, but this thing repeated, all the news was boring. The Russo-Ukrainian war was a bit more intense, but then it slowly turned into another form of Brexit, the news was long, the story was boring, the audience was less willing to listen, and the news media was less willing to use it to attract readers.
In this situation, the Ukrainian counteroffensive that has been rumored for a long time, whether it is a spring counteroffensive or a summer counteroffensive, has not been carried out so far, and has not seen a little splash, indicating that everyone is very, very tired. The front lines should have been fortified and deadlocked. The Russian side may only want those four states, other places do not want, and will not move forward, but the Ukrainian side can not fight down, and it is trapped in a situation like this.
Therefore, I personally think it is impossible to sign a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, because they have completely different statements about the four states.
For Russia, it took hundreds of years and countless lives to seize Crimea, first from the Ottoman Turks, who did not know how many people died and fought many battles to seize Crimea, so it is impossible for Russia to give up Crimea, which is Russia's outpost in Europe.
As for the other states in the east, because they are all Russian, it is also for Russia to get back its rightful land. But in the case of Ukraine, after the collapse of the [Soviet Union], Ukraine has legally divided these lands. Legally, Ukraine considers this to be my land, so there can be no compromise.
I don't think there will be a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine based on the basic condition that there will be no concessions from either side, and my view is that it will eventually turn into something like the Korean War, which will turn into an armistice. Until the two sides can't fight anymore, then they sign an armistice agreement, but they don't sign a peace agreement, and occasionally there is a little friction, a little confrontation.
The final pattern that we will see is that the Russian map will put those places on its national map, Ukraine will insist on putting those places on its map, and the two armies will continue to face off over there, but then there may be a stalemate, and there will be a truce, which is my personal view.
Perhaps both the US and Russia will declare victory. Russia says we finally got these states, the United States will say we helped Ukraine stop the Russian invasion, Ukraine will say in the middle that those states are still ours, we may have to continue to resist, and it will probably end up like this.
Because the 2024 US election is coming, the US side has to focus on the internal election of the whole country. According to a habit we have seen in the United States government before, as long as the Democratic Party comes to power, there will be a bigger war, and in these 10 years and 20 years, there will be a war when the Democratic Party comes to power.
Including this time, if Trump is in office, there will be no war between Russia and Ukraine, but if the Democratic Party takes office, there will be a war between Russia and Ukraine. If Trump is successful in the final reelection, then the most important things that Trump is likely to do after coming up is to get a cease-fire between the United States and Russia, not necessarily a peace agreement, but a cease-fire.
During this period of time, one of the biggest job points for the Democratic Party is to prevent the Republican Party from seizing power and prevent Trump from seizing power. After more than a year of changes, the newly emerging forces of the Republican Party that we had originally placed our hopes on are now no match for Trump. If there is no accident, then the final is still Trump against Biden, and this time Trump temporarily sees the chance of victory is still a little larger, for the time being, not guaranteed, because there will be random fluctuations.
So now the entire Democratic Party must focus on dealing with Trump and preventing him from undermining their global strategy. The Democratic Party has a very distinct global strategy, it is systematic. It also has a lot of think tanks and people behind it who are maintaining this strategy. But why do they hate Trump so much? Because Trump went on a rampage. Trump has no strategy, he only has a general idea of what he wants to do, but he will not develop a very detailed strategy and system like the Democratic Party, so he will change the strategy that the Democratic Party has developed at will when he comes to power.
This is what the Democrats hate most about Trump on international issues, is that he does not follow the steps, does not follow the system, does not follow the idea, so they will prevent Trump from coming to power to undermine their strategy, including Trump's previous sabotage of their so-called global Allies.
The international system that the United States now inherits actually originated in Britain. The focus of the entire system is to control the global shipping lanes, and focus on controlling the entire Western Europe, so that the entire Western Europe and Eastern Europe present a pattern of confrontation, so that Europe is not unified, so that the Middle East is not unified, this is the United States' big system of diplomatic strategy.
However, after Trump came to power, he destroyed the strategy of the Democratic Party, so we think that if the United States wants to prevent Trump from destroying their broader strategy, it should focus on the domestic campaign, and Trump's various crimes and various other things may be more serious.
If nothing happens on the Russian side, Putin should be elected again. Since there is no one or thing that can challenge him now, there should be no problem for Putin to be successfully elected in 2024, but it is not clear when to sit until now, nominally until 2032.
Therefore, I personally believe that the war between Russia and Ukraine will end in a ceasefire agreement, not a peace agreement. In the second half of this year or the first half of next year, then the United States must focus all on the domestic, this time the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will be more tame, and the final result must be Russia's control of this territory, Ukraine does not recognize this territory. At the same time, the United States and Russia will complete their political transition, probably within a year or two.
