中心不位于对流塔中，直接扫一眼没中心的图还以为中心塌陷！形成风眼。。。

偏暖与偏冷，另外中心的位置在空洞下面

06W NIDA
As of 00:00 UTC Jul 31, 2016:
Location: 16.9°N 123.5°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 mb
定位位于空洞下方

TROPICAL CYCLONE NIDA (2016-07-31 01:15:06 UTC) ========================== HKO: 302100Z 16.8N 123.7E 46KT (+012H) 18.1N 122.3E ---KT (+024H) 19.7N 120.4E 70KT (+036H) 21.0N 118.3E ---KT (+048H) 22.1N 116.1E 76KT (+060H) 23.1N 113.9E ---KT (+072H) 23.8N 111.9E 40KT (+084H) 24.2N 110.3E ---KT (+096H) 24.4N 109.3E 22KT JTWC: 301800Z 16.2N 124.3E 45KT (+012H) 17.6N 122.5E 60KT (+024H) 19.0N 120.5E 60KT (+036H) 20.2N 118.3E 70KT (+048H) 21.4N 116.0E 75KT (+072H) 23.2N 111.4E 50KT (+096H) 24.3N 107.4E 20KT JMA: 310000Z 17.4N 123.0E 50KT (+012H) 18.8N 121.0E 60KT (+024H) 19.9N 119.0E 70KT (+048H) 22.1N 114.0E 75KT (+072H) 24.0N 109.3E ---KT NMC: 310000Z 17.4N 123.0E 54KT (+012H) 18.8N 121.1E 64KT (+024H) 19.8N 118.9E 74KT (+036H) 20.9N 116.5E 87KT (+048H) 21.9N 113.9E 93KT (+060H) 23.0N 111.0E 45KT (+072H) 23.9N 108.5E 31KT CWB: 301800Z 16.7N 123.8E 45KT (+012H) 18.0N 122.3E 58KT (+024H) 19.1N 120.4E 58KT (+036H) 20.2N 118.2E 64KT (+048H) 21.5N 115.5E 64KT (+072H) 23.2N 110.7E 58KT (+096H) 23.5N 106.4E 35KT KMA: 310000Z 17.3N 123.1E 52KT (+024H) 20.0N 119.3E 68KT (+048H) 22.3N 114.4E 76KT (+072H) 23.8N 109.0E 41KT (+096H) 24.4N 104.8E ---KT PAGASA: 301800Z 16.8N 124.1E 45KT (+024H) 19.3N 119.7E ---KT (+048H) 22.3N 115.7E ---KT (+072H) 24.4N 111.0E ---KT

WTPQ30 RJTD 310000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR STS 1604 NIDA (1604)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 310000 UTC IS FAIR.
STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

被菲律宾挡住，导致下方云团吸不上来

wdpn31 pgtw 310300 msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi// subj/prognostic reasoning for tropical storm 06w (six) warning nr 07// rmks// 1. For meteorologists. 2. 6 hour summary and analysis. Tropical storm 06w (Nida), located approximately 200 nm northeast of Manila, Philippines, has tracked northwestward at 10 knots over the past six hours. Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts deep flaring central convection forming a cold dense overcast obscuring the low level circulation center (LLCC). The initial position is placed with high confidence based on a 302241z ssmis 91 ghz image showing a strong band of convection on the western periphery wrapping tightly into the LLCC. Convective activity and wind speeds are currently being influenced by interaction with the topographic features of eastern Luzon. The intensity is assessed at 55 knots and is based on objective Dvorak estimates from all agencies reporting t3.5 (55 knots). The steering mechanism for ts 06w is currently transitioning to a subtropical ridge to the north, and this transition is responsible for the decrease in track speed over the last 12 hours. Recent data shows the system has begun accelerating, suggesting the ridge is beginning to take hold. The environment is favorable with wind shear values near 5 to 10 knots, SSTs in excess of 30 celsius with substantial oceanic heat content, and a near anticyclone forming over the system.

3. Forecast reasoning. A. No change to the forecast philosophy since the previous prognostic reasoning message. B. Ts 06w will continue to accelerate west-northwestward in the next 12 hours as the steering ridge to the north reorients. Intensity is expected to increase due to the favorable environment, but intensification will be limited as the system skirts the coastline of northern Luzon through tau 18. The system is expected to maintain its structure fairly well as it resurfaces over water in the South China Sea with further intensification expected. Ts 06w will continue its west-northwestward track until it makes landfall near Hong Kong around tau 48. C. In the extended Taus, ts 06w should weaken rapidly as it tracks westward into China, dissipating by tau 96. Dynamic model guidance is in very tight agreement and has been over the last 24 hours showing the deep layered ridge anchored over China influencing a west-northwestward track. The forecast track is placed near the multi-model consensus track, and due to the tight agreement of model solutions, there is high confidence in the forecast track./=

WTPQ30 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR STS 1604 NIDA (1604)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 010000 UTC IS GOOD.
STS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 12 HOURS.
STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

WTPQ20 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1604 NIDA (1604)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010000UTC 20.1N 118.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 210NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 020000UTC 22.4N 113.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 030000UTC 23.8N 109.9E 95NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 040000UTC 24.9N 106.4E 130NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =