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【讨论旋风】南印度洋旋风2017-Enawo

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扰动95S https://tieba.baidu.com/p/5000730059?pn=1


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1楼2017-03-03 14:39
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    来自Android客户端2楼2017-03-03 14:39
      ** WTIO22 FMEE 030631 ***
      SECURITE
      GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
      ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/03/2017
      AT
      0600 UTC.
      WARNING NUMBER: 004/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)


      10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
      (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
      MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
      (INDICATIVE FIGURE).


      GALE WARNING
      BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/03/2017 AT 0600 UTC.


      PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ENAWO) 998 HPA
      POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 57.0 E
      (TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
      FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
      MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT


      THREAT AREAS:
      SQUALLY WEATHER REACHING 300 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE WESTERN
      SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
      GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
      50 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
      NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
      UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE
      SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
      QUADRANT.
      STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
      FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
      12H, VALID 2017/03/03 AT 18 UTC:
      13.2 S / 55.9 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
      24H, VALID 2017/03/04 AT 06 UTC:
      13.6 S / 55.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM


      OTHER INFORMATIONS:
      NIL.=
      MFR率先命名Enawo


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      3楼2017-03-03 14:40
        ** WTIO21 FMEE 030631 ***METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNIONBMS MARINE LE 03/03/2017 A 0600 UTC.NUMERO: 004/6 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN)VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT)(LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENTMOYEN).PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)(VALEUR INDICATIVE)AVIS DE COUP DE VENTDEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 03/03/2017 A 0600 UTC.PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (ENAWO) 998 HPAPOSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.8 S / 57.0 E(DOUZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE SEPT DEGRES ZERO EST) A 0600 UTCDEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KTZONES MENACEES:TEMPS A GRAINS ATTEIGNANT 300 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLEOUEST ET LE QUADRANT SUD-ESTCOUP DE VENT 35 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 50MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST.GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 60 MNDANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST, JUSQUE 130 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUESTET JUSQUE 150 MN DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST.FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS.PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES:A 12H POUR LE 03/03/2017 A 18 UTC:13.2 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREEA 24H POUR LE 04/03/2017 A 06 UTC:13.6 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX = 45 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREEINDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES :NEANT.=


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        4楼2017-03-03 14:40
          95S INVEST 170303 0600 12.7S 56.8E SHEM 35 996


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          来自Android客户端5楼2017-03-03 14:46


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            6楼2017-03-03 14:47


              这环流未来不会太小啊....至于强度还是观望再说吧...


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              7楼2017-03-03 14:50
                终于升低压了啊


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                来自iPhone客户端9楼2017-03-03 15:03
                  升格09S

                  Southern Hemisphere
                  96S.INVEST
                  09S.INVEST


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                  10楼2017-03-03 15:14


                    09S的第一张图


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                    13楼2017-03-03 15:21



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                      15楼2017-03-03 15:34
                        ** WTIO31 FMEE 030702 RRA ***
                        CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
                        BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
                        INDIEN)
                        0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/6/20162017
                        1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (ENAWO)
                        2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 03/03/2017 :
                        DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.8 S / 57.0 E
                        (DOUZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE SEPT DEGRES ZERO EST)
                        DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT
                        3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H
                        4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 998 HPA
                        5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
                        RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM
                        6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
                        28 KT NE: 110 SE: 0 SO: 240 NO: 280
                        34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 90 NO: 90
                        7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1400 KM
                        8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE
                        1.B PREVISIONS :
                        12H: 03/03/2017 18 UTC: 13.2 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
                        TROPICALE MODEREE
                        24H: 04/03/2017 06 UTC: 13.6 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
                        TROPICALE MODEREE
                        36H: 04/03/2017 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
                        TEMPETE TROPICALE
                        48H: 05/03/2017 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
                        TEMPETE TROPICALE
                        60H: 05/03/2017 18 UTC: 14.7 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
                        TROPICAL
                        72H: 06/03/2017 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
                        TROPICAL
                        2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
                        96H: 07/03/2017 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
                        TROPICAL INTENSE
                        120H: 08/03/2017 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE
                        TROPICAL INTENSE
                        2.C COMMENTAIRES :
                        T=CI=2.5+


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                        16楼2017-03-03 15:39


                          FY2G凑合看


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                          17楼2017-03-03 16:30


                            SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001
                            WTXS31 PGTW 030900
                            1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001
                            01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
                            MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
                            WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
                            ---
                            WARNING POSITION:
                            030600Z --- NEAR 12.7S 56.8E
                            MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
                            POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
                            POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
                            PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
                            MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
                            WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
                            RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                            REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 56.8E
                            ---
                            FORECASTS:
                            12 HRS, VALID AT:
                            031800Z --- 13.3S 56.1E
                            MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
                            WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
                            RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                            VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
                            ---
                            24 HRS, VALID AT:
                            040600Z --- 13.9S 55.8E
                            MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
                            WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
                            RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                            RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                            VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
                            ---
                            36 HRS, VALID AT:
                            041800Z --- 14.3S 55.1E
                            MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
                            WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
                            RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                            RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                            RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                            VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
                            ---
                            EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
                            48 HRS, VALID AT:
                            050600Z --- 14.8S 54.1E
                            MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
                            WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
                            RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                            RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                            RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                            VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
                            ---
                            72 HRS, VALID AT:
                            060600Z --- 15.8S 52.5E
                            MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
                            WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
                            RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                            RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                            RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                            VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
                            ---
                            LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
                            ---
                            96 HRS, VALID AT:
                            070600Z --- 16.8S 51.6E
                            MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
                            WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
                            RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                            RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                            RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                            VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
                            ---
                            120 HRS, VALID AT:
                            080600Z --- 18.7S 50.3E
                            MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
                            WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
                            RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                            RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                            RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                            ---
                            REMARKS:
                            030900Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 56.6E.
                            TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM NORTH
                            OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
                            KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
                            MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
                            WARNINGS AT 032100Z AND 040900Z.
                            //
                            BT
                            #0001
                            NNNN


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                            本楼含有高级字体18楼2017-03-03 16:43
                              JTWC和MFR首报都相当激情,然而这货目前的发展状况只能说一般,未来两天将是整理结构的关键时期,整理好了C4甚至C5都是有可能的,整理不好参考某货


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                              19楼2017-03-03 16:48


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                                来自Android客户端20楼2017-03-03 17:17
                                  南太平洋。。。。

                                  全球热带气旋监测报告
                                  预报:柳龙生 签发:张 玲 2017 年 03 月 03 日 18 时
                                  南太平洋一级热带气旋“ENAWO”生成
                                  南太平洋一级热带气旋“ENAWO”于今天(北京时,下同)生成,其中心下午2点位于毛里求斯岛(Mauritius Island)西北部约810公里的南太平洋洋面上,也就是南纬12.8度,东经57度,中心附近最大风力有8级(18米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为998百帕。

                                  预计,“ENAWO”将以每小时19公里左右的速度向西南方向移动,强度逐渐加强。


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                                  来自Android客户端21楼2017-03-03 17:23


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                                    来自Android客户端22楼2017-03-03 18:17


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                                      25楼2017-03-03 18:26
                                        09S NINE
                                        As of 06:00 UTC Mar 03, 2017:
                                        Location: 12.7°S 56.8°E
                                        Maximum Winds: 35 kt
                                        Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb


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                                        来自Android客户端27楼2017-03-03 19:06


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                                          来自手机贴吧28楼2017-03-03 20:50
                                            环境非常理想,全程29+海温和低风切,而且后期可以打开强流出。所以开始整合的时候一定不要太着急,系统大环流的底子存在吃干空气毁结构的隐忧。不过这还是小概率,如果整合顺利还没有陆地影响,C4是保底的。

                                            另一个忧患是马达加斯加,路径西分量多少决定发展时间,当前机构预测还是比较偏向美系数值,如果跟EC路径可能来不及开眼就登陆。


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                                            来自Android客户端29楼2017-03-03 20:51
                                              09S ENAWO 170303 1200 12.9S 56.5E SHEM 35 996


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                                              来自手机贴吧30楼2017-03-03 21:00
                                                直接报登陆


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                                                来自手机贴吧31楼2017-03-03 21:12
                                                  对于强度党和马达加斯加都是大坏事


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                                                  32楼2017-03-03 21:17
                                                    吓到我了
                                                    来风吧以来头一次看到如此激进的GEFS系集
                                                    平均巅峰935hpa,不过几乎没有支持登陆马达加斯加的


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                                                    33楼2017-03-03 21:39
                                                      SH, 09, 2017030312, , BEST, 0, 129S, 565E, 35, 999, TS


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                                                      来自手机贴吧34楼2017-03-03 22:01
                                                        非常强势


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                                                        来自Android客户端35楼2017-03-03 22:54
                                                          整合颇有成效


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                                                          来自Android客户端36楼2017-03-04 04:30
                                                            第2报上望120kt,后期紧贴马达加斯加东岸。


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                                                            38楼2017-03-04 05:03