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【讨论扰动】98P-20年01月26日编

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98P.INVEST


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1楼2020-01-27 06:29
    2


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    来自Android客户端2楼2020-01-27 06:30


      98P INVEST 200126 1800 17.3S 139.6E SHEM 15 0


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      3楼2020-01-27 06:32
        98P INVEST 200127 0000 17.1S 138.6E SHEM 20 1002


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        来自Android客户端4楼2020-01-27 07:36
          过于靠岸,难以发展


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          来自Android客户端5楼2020-01-27 07:38




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            6楼2020-01-27 08:51

              看来这货要靠棕海来搞一个陆上加强?


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              7楼2020-01-27 10:50


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                来自iPhone客户端8楼2020-01-27 11:06
                  可能类似于18年的90P,BoM应该会给一个编号,但命名困难
                  (py你到底给了FNMOC多少钱


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                  来自Android客户端10楼2020-01-27 11:32
                    98P INVEST 200127 0000 18.4S 139.4E SHEM 20 1004


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                    来自Android客户端11楼2020-01-27 14:04
                      windy的诡异预报
                      先西南行再东南折,在沙漠腹地缩小环流再加强
                      图中小钢炮即为这个
                      棕海是不是不一定要有湿润的土地?


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                      来自Android客户端12楼2020-01-27 14:22
                        ABPW10 PGTW 270600
                        MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
                        SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
                        PACIFIC OCEANS/270600Z-280600ZJAN2020//
                        RMKS/
                        1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
                        A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
                        B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
                        C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
                        2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
                        A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
                        B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
                        (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
                        18.4S 139.4E, APPROXIMATELY 102 NM SOUTH OF MORNINGTON ISLAND,
                        AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALONG WITH THE
                        MORNINGTON ISLAND RADAR LOOP, SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
                        CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION.
                        A 270412Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE POCKETS OF
                        DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD THE LLC WITH POTENTIAL FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE
                        BANDING TO THE EAST, OVER CAPE YORK PENINSULA. A RECENT OBSERVATION
                        AT MORNINGTON ISLAND AIRPORT SHOWS 16 KNOT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
                        98P IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH LOW
                        (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW.
                        WHILE 98P IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT IT
                        WILL MOVE OVER THE VERY WARM (31 TO 32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE IN THE
                        GULF OF CARPENTARIA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98P
                        WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD, SKIRTING THE COASTLINE, BEFORE MOVING
                        BACK SOUTH WITH MINIMAL OVERALL INTENSIFICATION; HOWEVER,
                        INTENSIFICATION POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE SYSTEM
                        REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
                        WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
                        ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
                        SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
                        (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
                        C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
                        NNNN


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                        来自iPhone客户端13楼2020-01-27 14:33
                          98P INVEST 200127 0600 18.2S 139.8E SHEM 20 1000


                          钢铁拳渣
                          贴吧拳王争霸赛中累计获取10场胜利,去领取
                          活动截止:2100-01-01
                          去徽章馆》
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                          14楼2020-01-27 15:00
                            A weak tropical low, 1003 hPa is located over the Gulf Country in Queensland near 18.2S 139.1E, about 340 kilometres east northeast of Brunette Downs at 2.00pm CST on 27 January. This tropical low is slowly moving towards the northeast and may briefly move over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters on Tuesday, before moving back over land on Wednesday and track to the southwest towards the Northern Territory/Queensland border.

                            In the longer term, the tropical low is expected move southwest across the central or southern districts of the Northern Territory.

                            Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
                            Tuesday:Very Low.
                            Wednesday:Low.
                            Thursday:Very Low.


                            钢铁拳渣
                            贴吧拳王争霸赛中累计获取10场胜利,去领取
                            活动截止:2100-01-01
                            去徽章馆》
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                            15楼2020-01-27 15:02
                              98P INVEST 200127 1200 18.0S 140.3E SHEM 20 1007


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                              来自Android客户端16楼2020-01-27 20:53


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                                来自iPhone客户端17楼2020-01-28 01:29


                                  定位在近岸陆地上,如果能定到海上的话或许会有升格可能。


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                                  18楼2020-01-28 01:37
                                    98P.INVEST.25kts.1001mb.17.3S.141.6E.


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                                    20楼2020-01-28 08:52
                                      灭火队员


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                                      21楼2020-01-28 09:13



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                                        来自Android客户端22楼2020-01-28 09:55
                                          MEDIUM


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                                          来自Android客户端23楼2020-01-28 10:53
                                            (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
                                            NEAR 18.4S 139.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.3S 141.6E, APPROXIMATELY
                                            135 NM SOUTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
                                            MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, A 272040Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
                                            IMAGE, AND THE MORNINGTON ISLAND RADAR LOOP SHOW A DEVELOPING LOW
                                            LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH IMPROVED CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND
                                            A 1001MB SURFACE LOW. INVEST 98P IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE UPPER
                                            LEVEL SUPPORT WITH LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A POINT
                                            SOURCE OVERHEAD PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. INVEST 98P IS
                                            CURRENTLY ANALYZED TO BE APPROXIMATELY 40 NM INLAND; HOWEVER, DUE TO
                                            THE STRENGTH AND ORGANIZATION OF THE EXISTING SURFACE LOW, THE
                                            DISTURBANCE MAY DEEPEN QUICKLY IF ITS TRACK DRIFTS FURTHER WESTWARD
                                            OVER THE WARM (31-32C) WATERS OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. GLOBAL
                                            MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98P WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD,
                                            SKIRTING THE COASTLINE, BEFORE MOVING BACK SOUTH WITH MINIMAL
                                            OVERALL INTENSIFICATION; HOWEVER, INTENSIFICATION POTENTIAL IS
                                            HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ITS EXACT TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
                                            SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
                                            LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
                                            THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
                                            HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.


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                                            来自Android客户端24楼2020-01-28 10:56


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                                              来自iPhone客户端26楼2020-01-28 11:36


                                                00Z定位


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                                                27楼2020-01-28 12:55
                                                  ABPW10 PGTW 280600
                                                  MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
                                                  SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
                                                  /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS 280600Z-290600ZJAN2020//
                                                  RMKS/
                                                  1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
                                                  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
                                                  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
                                                  C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
                                                  2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
                                                  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
                                                  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
                                                  (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
                                                  NEAR 17.3S 141.6E IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER LAND AND IS NO LONGER
                                                  SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
                                                  NEXT 24 HOURS.
                                                  (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
                                                  C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
                                                  NNNN


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                                                  来自iPhone客户端28楼2020-01-28 14:00
                                                    98P INVEST 200128 0600 18.7S 141.2E SHEM 25 998


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                                                    来自Android客户端29楼2020-01-28 14:54


                                                      看来升格是非常难了


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                                                      30楼2020-01-28 15:47
                                                        A weak tropical low, 1000 hPa is located over the Gulf Country in Queensland near 17.3S 141.2E, about 575 kilometres east northeast of Brunette Downs at 9.00am CST on 28 January. This tropical low is slowly moving but is expected to move towards the southwest tonight and during Wednesday, crossing into the Northern Territory border and into the southeastern Barkly Districts later on Wednesday. The low will continue to move in a southwest direction before taking a more southerly path on Thursday afternoon.

                                                        Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
                                                        Wednesday:Very Low.
                                                        Thursday:Very Low.
                                                        Friday:Very Low.


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                                                        31楼2020-01-28 16:30
                                                          TPPS11 PGTW 281227


                                                          A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (OVER CAPE YORK)


                                                          B. 28/1200Z


                                                          C. XX.XX


                                                          D. XXX.XX


                                                          E. N/A/HMWRI8


                                                          F. N/A


                                                          G. IR/EIR


                                                          H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT
                                                          BE FOUND.


                                                          I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE




                                                          RICHARDSON


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                                                          32楼2020-01-28 20:34
                                                            98P INVEST 200128 1200 19.1S 140.5E SHEM 20 999


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                                                            来自Android客户端33楼2020-01-28 20:46