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【讨论扰动】91S-20年03月01日编

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91S.INVEST


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1楼2020-03-01 09:29
    2


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    来自Android客户端2楼2020-03-01 09:30


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      来自Android客户端5楼2020-03-01 09:33
        91S.INVEST.15kts.996mb.12.5S.57E.


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        来自iPhone客户端6楼2020-03-01 09:33
          91S INVEST 200301 0000 12.5S 57.0E SHEM 15 1010


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          来自Android客户端7楼2020-03-01 09:44
            GFS激情上望撞马达加斯加后莫峡巅峰943
            另外GFS预测南印后续有货


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            9楼2020-03-01 10:45


              GFS已经稳定多报大骗子形态


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              10楼2020-03-01 11:30
                91S INVEST 200301 0600 13.2S 56.4E SHEM 15 1008


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                来自iPhone客户端11楼2020-03-01 14:53
                  南半球今年真是数量囍疯,质量囍炸


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                  来自iPhone客户端12楼2020-03-01 17:54
                    The monsoon flow is established over the entire width of the basin. It supplies a large low-pressure area to the north of the Mascarene Islands associated with a strong convective activity on the north-eastern side of this area around 10oS/64oE and to the south of a better defined circulation in the center of this area near Tromelin island around 16oS/57oE. Another area of strong convective activity is present on the northern part of the Mozambique Channel between the Comoros archipelago and the African coasts where the flow from the Mozambique Channel converges with the monsoon flow.

                    The presence of strong wind shear and dry air at all levels in the western part of the low-level circulation near Tromelin island limits the potential for intensification of the clockwise circulation in the short term. We have to wait until the middle of next week with the arrival of a high pressure cell south of the Mascarene Islands to help structure the circulation a little more. However, the maintenance of vertical wind shear in the Northeast of Madagascar continues to limit the potential for intensification while the circulation is expected to move towards Madagascar. As a result, a tropical system with an intensity less than a moderate tropical storm is expected to transit northwest of the Mascarene Islands at the end of the week.

                    Over the next 5 days, the risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm is low North-West of the Mascarenes from Wednesday.


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                    13楼2020-03-01 18:46


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                      14楼2020-03-01 18:54
                        91S INVEST 200301 1200 15.4S 57.3E SHEM 15 1010


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                        来自Android客户端15楼2020-03-01 20:31
                          91S INVEST 200301 1800 14.8S 57.4E SHEM 20 1005


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                          来自iPhone客户端17楼2020-03-02 06:15
                            (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
                            14.9S 56.6E, APPROXIMATELY 390 NM NORTH OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED
                            MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 011331Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE
                            IMAGE DEPICT ISOLATED POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A BROAD, ILL-
                            DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. 91S IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE
                            CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (<15
                            KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
                            GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE 91S WILL REMAIN ON A QUASI-STATIONARY
                            TRACK BEFORE SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARDS MADAGASCAR WITH MARGINAL
                            STRENGTHENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
                            TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
                            MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
                            CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.


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                            来自iPhone客户端18楼2020-03-02 06:17
                              91S INVEST 200302 0000 16.2S 56.7E SHEM 20 1003


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                              来自iPhone客户端19楼2020-03-02 09:06


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                                来自Android客户端20楼2020-03-02 09:27
                                  数值还不是很支持


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                                  来自Android客户端21楼2020-03-02 09:40
                                    TXXS21 KNES 011927
                                    TCSSIO

                                    A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91S)

                                    B. 01/1800Z

                                    C. 14.4S

                                    D. 57.0E

                                    E. FIVE/MET-8

                                    F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

                                    G. IR/EIR/SWIR

                                    H. REMARKS...SHEAR PATTERN WITH LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES LESS THAN
                                    1.25 DEGREE FROM SMALL COVER OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT
                                    AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

                                    I. ADDL POSITIONS

                                    NIL


                                    ...KIBLER


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                                    来自iPhone客户端22楼2020-03-02 09:48
                                      TXXS21 KNES 020038
                                      TCSSIO

                                      A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91S)

                                      B. 01/2330Z

                                      C. 15.7S

                                      D. 57.5E

                                      E. FIVE/MET-8

                                      F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

                                      G. IR/EIR/SWIR

                                      H. REMARKS...LARGER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTED IN A DT OF 1.0. MET AND
                                      PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

                                      I. ADDL POSITIONS

                                      NIL


                                      ...ZHU


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                                      来自iPhone客户端23楼2020-03-02 09:49
                                        91S INVEST 200302 0600 17.0S 57.3E SHEM 20 1005


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                                        来自iPhone客户端24楼2020-03-02 15:01
                                          TXXS21 KNES 020654
                                          TCSSIO

                                          A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91S)

                                          B. 02/0530Z

                                          C. 17.5S

                                          D. 57.2E

                                          E. FIVE/MET-8

                                          F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

                                          G. IR/EIR/VIS

                                          H. REMARKS...DT OF 1.0 IS BASED ON 0.2 BROAD CURVED BANDING. MET AND
                                          PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.

                                          I. ADDL POSITIONS

                                          NIL


                                          ...RAMIREZ


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                                          来自iPhone客户端25楼2020-03-02 15:09
                                            91S INVEST 200302 1200 17.2S 57.5E SHEM 20 1005


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                                            来自iPhone客户端26楼2020-03-02 20:32



                                              MMS编号Tropical Disturbance H


                                              钢铁拳渣
                                              贴吧拳王争霸赛中累计获取10场胜利,去领取
                                              活动截止:2100-01-01
                                              去徽章馆》
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                                              27楼2020-03-02 21:24
                                                TXXS21 KNES 021252
                                                TCSSIO

                                                A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91S)

                                                B. 02/1130Z

                                                C. 18.1S

                                                D. 57.5E

                                                E. FIVE/MET-8

                                                F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

                                                G. IR/EIR/VIS

                                                H. REMARKS...IT IS DIFFICULT IF AT ALL POSSIBLE TO FIND THE LLCC IN
                                                THE 1133Z SSMI PASS. DT OF 1.0 IS BASED ON GT .2 BROAD CURVED BANDING
                                                IN VIS. MET AND PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.

                                                I. ADDL POSITIONS

                                                NIL


                                                ...RAMIREZ


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                                                来自iPhone客户端28楼2020-03-02 21:41
                                                  91S INVEST 200302 1800 17.8S 57.2E SHEM 20 1005


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                                                  来自iPhone客户端29楼2020-03-03 06:06
                                                    TXXS21 KNES 021822
                                                    TCSSIO

                                                    A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91S)

                                                    B. 02/1730Z

                                                    C. 17.7S

                                                    D. 57.6E

                                                    E. THREE/MET-8

                                                    F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24HRS

                                                    G. IR/EIR/SWIR

                                                    H. REMARKS...SHEAR PATTERN WITH LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
                                                    WITH THE LLCC LESS THAN 75 NM FROM A SMALL COLD OVERCAST FOR A
                                                    DT=1.0. MET<1.0. PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

                                                    I. ADDL POSITIONS

                                                    NIL


                                                    ...LEE


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                                                    来自iPhone客户端30楼2020-03-03 06:07
                                                      TXXS21 KNES 030006
                                                      TCSSIO

                                                      A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91S)

                                                      B. 02/2330Z

                                                      C. 17.8S

                                                      D. 56.9E

                                                      E. THREE/MET-8

                                                      F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24HRS

                                                      G. IR/EIR/SWIR

                                                      H. REMARKS...>2/10 BANDING FOR A DT=1.0. MET<1.0. PT=1.0. FT IS BASED
                                                      ON PT SINCE CLOUD FEATURES ARE NOT CLEAR-CUT AND AN ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE
                                                      TO THE MET.

                                                      I. ADDL POSITIONS

                                                      NIL


                                                      ...LEE


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                                                      来自iPhone客户端31楼2020-03-03 08:30
                                                        91S INVEST 200303 0000 17.8S 57.9E SHEM 20 1005


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                                                        来自iPhone客户端32楼2020-03-03 09:33
                                                          海温怎么样,风切嘞?


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                                                          来自Android客户端33楼2020-03-03 09:48
                                                            91S INVEST 200303 0600 17.9S 58.1E SHEM 20 1008


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                                                            来自iPhone客户端34楼2020-03-03 15:11