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【讨论扰动】94S-20年03月08日编

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94S.INVEST


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1楼2020-03-09 06:25
    6


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    来自iPhone客户端2楼2020-03-09 06:25


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      来自iPhone客户端3楼2020-03-09 06:26
        94S INVEST 200308 1800 11.0S 113.0E SHEM 15 0


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        来自Android客户端5楼2020-03-09 07:12
          南半球 有多活跃扰动一个接一个的


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          6楼2020-03-09 07:56
            94S.INVEST.15kts.1008mb.11.7S.112.9E


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            7楼2020-03-09 08:19
              94S INVEST 200309 0000 11.7S 112.9E SHEM 15 1008
              94S INVEST 200308 1800 11.0S 113.0E SHEM 15 1010


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              来自iPhone客户端8楼2020-03-09 08:19
                印度里西亚?


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                来自Android客户端9楼2020-03-09 08:30
                  我不怎么看好


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                  10楼2020-03-09 08:56
                    我咋觉得会重演Chempaka或者Greg


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                    11楼2020-03-09 10:18
                      Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
                      Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Sunday 8 March 2020
                      for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 11 March 2020.
                      Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
                      Potential Cyclones:

                      A weak tropical low is forecast to develop in the monsoon trough to the south of Java in the next 24 to 36 hours. This tropical low will then gradually drift south towards the northwest of Western Australia throughout the week. There is a small risk that this low develops into a tropical cyclone from Wednesday, and if this occurs may remain at cyclone intensity until Friday. Conditions are broadly unfavourable for significant development of a tropical system, particularly later in the week as the system approaches the western Pilbara. It is unlikely for this system to have a significant impact on Western Australian communities.

                      Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
                      Monday:Very Low
                      Tuesday:Very Low
                      Wednesday:Low


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                      14楼2020-03-09 14:03



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                        15楼2020-03-09 14:26
                          94S INVEST 200309 0600 11.7S 113.8E SHEM 15 1004


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                          来自iPhone客户端16楼2020-03-09 15:15
                            94S INVEST 200309 1200 12.2S 113.8E SHEM 20 1007


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                            来自iPhone客户端18楼2020-03-09 20:11
                              这玩意是不是20S残余?


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                              来自Android客户端19楼2020-03-09 20:12
                                又来?


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                                来自Android客户端20楼2020-03-09 20:44


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                                  来自iPhone客户端21楼2020-03-10 00:53
                                    94S INVEST 200309 1800 11.2S 113.9E SHEM 20 1005


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                                    22楼2020-03-10 02:47
                                      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
                                      NEAR 11.7S 113.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 113.6E, APPROXIMATELY
                                      647 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
                                      SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 091331Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL
                                      ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN FRAGMENTED BANDING. INVEST 94S IS
                                      CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD
                                      OUTFLOW, MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29
                                      TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
                                      AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL TURN ON A SOUTHWARD TRACK AND MAY REACH
                                      TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
                                      SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
                                      PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
                                      DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
                                      HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.


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                                      来自iPhone客户端23楼2020-03-10 05:08
                                        94S INVEST 200310 0000 12.0S 114.6E SHEM 20 1006


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                                        来自iPhone客户端24楼2020-03-10 08:55
                                          又是一个西澳气旋。是否平庸无奇看它自己了


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                                          来自Android客户端25楼2020-03-10 10:36
                                            94S INVEST 200310 0000 12.1S 115.5E SHEM 20 1006


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                                            来自iPhone客户端26楼2020-03-10 11:46
                                              94S INVEST 200310 0600 13.1S 116.2E SHEM 20 1005


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                                              来自iPhone客户端27楼2020-03-10 14:33
                                                A tropical low was located near 12.1S 115.7E at 8am WST Tuesday, about 380km south of Bali and 970km north of Karratha. This system is forecast to move south towards the northwest of Western Australia throughout the week and lie near the west Pilbara coast by Friday morning. There is only a low chance of this system developing into a tropical cyclone, as conditions are broadly unfavourable for significant development. However, squally conditions and heavy rainfall are possible over the western Pilbara from later on Thursday as the system approaches.

                                                Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
                                                Wednesday: Low
                                                Thursday: Low
                                                Friday: Low


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                                                28楼2020-03-10 15:28
                                                  TPXS10 PGTW 101220


                                                  A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94S (S OF JAVA)


                                                  B. 10/1150Z


                                                  C. 13.63S


                                                  D. 116.57E


                                                  E. FIVE/HMWRI8


                                                  F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS


                                                  G. IR/EIR


                                                  H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
                                                  YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.


                                                  I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE




                                                  ELIAS


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                                                  29楼2020-03-10 20:27
                                                    94S INVEST 200310 1200 13.8S 116.8E SHEM 25 1005


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                                                    30楼2020-03-10 20:45
                                                      TXXS22 KNES 101211
                                                      TCSSIO

                                                      A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94S)

                                                      B. 10/1130Z

                                                      C. 14.0S

                                                      D. 116.3E

                                                      E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

                                                      F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

                                                      G. IR/EIR/SWIR

                                                      H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
                                                      DATA. >2/10 BANDING FOR A DT=1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

                                                      I. ADDL POSITIONS

                                                      NIL


                                                      ...LEE


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                                                      来自iPhone客户端31楼2020-03-10 23:03
                                                        TPXS10 PGTW 101513

                                                        A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94S (S OF JAVA)

                                                        B. 10/1430Z

                                                        C. 14.07S

                                                        D. 116.77E

                                                        E. FIVE/HMWRI8

                                                        F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS

                                                        G. IR/EIR

                                                        H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
                                                        YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT. BROKE
                                                        CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGE OF FT TO 0.5 OVER 6 HRS.

                                                        I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


                                                        ELIA


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                                                        32楼2020-03-10 23:25
                                                          94S INVEST 200310 1200 13.9S 116.8E SHEM 30 1003


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                                                          33楼2020-03-10 23:35
                                                            TCFA


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                                                            34楼2020-03-10 23:42