对流旺盛

为什么有多个中心？

根据之前的定位，现在中心应该在白点处

唉，科氏力不够啊，头疼

93W INVEST 200327 0600 4.7N 146.2E WPAC 15 1007

中层扫描


ABPW10 PGTW 270600MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/270600Z-280600ZMAR2020//RMKS/1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.5N 152.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 147.5E, APPROXIMATELY 506 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK, DIFFICULT TO DISCERN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DISORGANIZED, FLARING CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A 270021Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A LACK OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION, SHOWING ONLY SMALL AREAS OF FRAGMENTED CONVECTION. 93W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY MAINTAINING 93W ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION. NAVGEM IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY OUTLIER, SHOWING INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//NNNN

这扰动这么NBCS的嘛……
吸入+爆对流.jpg

我们发出奶死橙色警报，这只是一个小扰动，他承受了太多

魔鬼定位，云图一看就知道不是

真有26kt