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【讨论天气】2020年4月7日美国强对流天气

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可能出现龙卷风


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1楼2020-04-07 21:46
    2020-05-28 10:29 广告
    2


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    2楼2020-04-07 21:47
      SPC AC 071245 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2020 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through tonight across southern portions of the Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic. The strongest storms will pose a threat for very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes. ...Southern Great Lakes/OH Valley this evening into tonight... A weak surface cyclone in south central MN this morning will continue east-southeastward to southern WI this afternoon and southwestern Lower MI this evening. This cyclone is associated with an embedded mid-upper speed max now moving from the Dakotas to MN, in advance of a northern stream shortwave trough. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will continue to spread eastward in this flow regime from the MS Valley to the OH Valley, while modest low-level moistening occurs beneath the cap accompanying the elevated mixed layer. The steep lapse rates, some increase in low-level moisture, and substantial deep-layer vertical shear will result in a favorable environment for severe storms across parts of the southern Great Lakes and OH Valley late today into tonight. In the wake of morning convection across IN/OH, destabilization is expected through the afternoon across northern IN/southern Lower MI into northwestern OH. The boundary layer will likely remain capped until late afternoon/evening near the surface low, when thunderstorm development is expected in the vicinity of southwestern Lower MI. Storm initiation is also possible as far west as northern IL, though weakening forcing for ascent and the relatively warm elevated mixed layer suggest the chances decrease with westward extent. Storms that form by this evening will do so in an environment favoring supercells, with MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear in excess of 45 kt. Very large hail will be possible given midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km and a semi-discrete initial storm mode. Some upscale growth into line segments will become more probable overnight with an attendant threat for damaging winds. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible where there is sufficient low-level moisture and somewhat greater low-level shear/hodograph curvature close to the warm front across southern Lower MI late this evening. The area around southern Lower MI will be monitored closely today for a potential upgrade to higher hail/wind probabilities. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon into tonight... Morning convection across OH will continue to develop southeastward across WV today in a warm advection regime on the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates. This convection will reach western and northern VA this afternoon, in concert with daytime heating and resultant steepening of low-level lapse rates. Some vertical mixing of moisture will keep boundary-layer dewpoints modest (in the 50s), but warm afternoon temperatures will promote MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with inverted-v profiles in the low levels. These thermodynamic profiles, in conjunction with effective bulk shear near 40 kt will favor organized clusters capable of producing damaging gusts and isolated large hail. A separate round of thunderstorms is expected late tonight from PA into the Mid-Atlantic with the surface cyclone and embedded mid-upper speed max. Though these storms will likely be elevated, sufficient buoyancy is expected for at least some threat for large hail, and perhaps a few strong/damaging gusts that could reach the surface. ...Lower MS Valley today... Clusters of elevated thunderstorms are developing this morning in the vicinity of southern AR, in a zone of low-level warm advection on the edge of the richer returning low-level moisture across east TX. Storms on the southern flank of the morning convection may pose a threat for isolated large hail and damaging gusts as the low levels destabilize, in an environment with sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for organized storm clusters and perhaps a supercell. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 04/07/2020 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1348Z (9:48PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME


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      3楼2020-04-07 21:49


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        4楼2020-04-07 21:50


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          5楼2020-04-07 21:52




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            7楼2020-04-07 21:55


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              8楼2020-04-07 22:05
                @USSR红军战士


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                来自Android客户端9楼2020-04-07 22:11
                  回波强劲


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                  10楼2020-04-07 22:35


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                    11楼2020-04-07 22:46



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                      12楼2020-04-07 23:09
                        不知道这张GIF能不能看到,美国南部有一团强对流云


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                        来自Android客户端13楼2020-04-08 01:20


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                          来自Android客户端14楼2020-04-08 01:22
                            这波不是太强,Tornado概率也就5%



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                            来自Android客户端15楼2020-04-08 06:39
                              强对流主集中在密歇根湖周边




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                              来自Android客户端16楼2020-04-08 06:48
                                这个波有点增强







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                                来自Android客户端17楼2020-04-08 08:46



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                                  来自Android客户端18楼2020-04-08 08:52
                                    美国中部其实还是有许多弱单体,都有可能发展



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                                    来自Android客户端19楼2020-04-08 09:03
                                      不认为南部回发展的孤立单体尽然有所发展



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                                      来自Android客户端20楼2020-04-08 15:18



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                                        来自Android客户端21楼2020-04-08 15:22
                                          SPC AC 080049

                                          Day 1 Convective Outlook
                                          NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
                                          0749 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2020

                                          Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

                                          ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
                                          SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL
                                          OHIO...

                                          ...SUMMARY...
                                          Severe thunderstorms are possible this evening through tonight
                                          across southern portions of the Great Lakes region into the Ohio
                                          Valley and Mid Atlantic. The strongest storms will pose a threat
                                          for very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes.

                                          ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic...
                                          The latest water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture
                                          extending from the Mid Missouri Valley eastward into the southern
                                          Great Lakes region. Thunderstorms are ongoing within this plume
                                          along the leading edge of a band of large-scale ascent. The storms
                                          are also located just ahead of a cold front located from eastern
                                          Iowa extending into far southwestern Lower Michigan where a 1001 mb
                                          low is present. Moderate instability is analyzed ahead of the front
                                          across much of the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys where MLCAPE is
                                          estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition to the
                                          instability, a 60 to 70 kt mid-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over
                                          the western Great Lakes. This feature is helping to create strong
                                          deep-layer shear profiles across much of the region. This is evident
                                          on the WSR-88D VWP at Chicago which has 0-6 km shear near 55 kt with
                                          strong speed-shear in the mid-levels.

                                          Further south, the 00Z sounding at Lincoln, Illinois shows 50 kt of
                                          0-6 km shear with a 700-500 mb lapse rate of 7.7 C/km. This is
                                          sampling an elevated mixed layer which the RAP shows from eastern
                                          Iowa extending eastward into northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.
                                          Supercells that develop along this corridor will be capable of
                                          producing large hail, with some hailstones


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                                          来自Android客户端22楼2020-04-08 18:59
                                            @-浮冰不冰- 这个算拟线性对流系统不


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                                            来自Android客户端23楼2020-04-08 19:03


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                                              来自Android客户端24楼2020-04-08 21:52
                                                @-浮冰不冰-
                                                打脸了吧


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                                                26楼2020-04-08 21:58
                                                  第一张是雷达坏了吗?





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                                                  27楼2020-04-08 22:27




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                                                    28楼2020-04-08 22:31





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                                                      29楼2020-04-08 23:14


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                                                        来自Android客户端30楼2020-04-08 23:31
                                                          SPC AC 081959

                                                          Day 1 Convective Outlook
                                                          NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
                                                          0259 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2020

                                                          Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

                                                          ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
                                                          INTO TONIGHT FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
                                                          OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY...

                                                          ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
                                                          AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TX...

                                                          ...SUMMARY...
                                                          Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable of producing
                                                          large hail and damaging winds, some significant, are expected from
                                                          mid/late afternoon across the middle Mississippi Valley eastward
                                                          into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through late tonight.

                                                          ...20Z Update...

                                                          ...Mid MS/TN/OH Valleys...
                                                          Only minor changes to the outlook over this area, including trimming
                                                          up the northwestern extent based on the position of the cold front
                                                          and also slightly extending 15% wind/5% tornado probabilities across
                                                          southern IN.

                                                          19Z surface analysis placed a low near the southern IA/IL border,
                                                          with a cold front extending southeastward through northeast KS.
                                                          Strong heating has contributed to deep boundary-layer mixing ahead
                                                          of the front across much of northern MO and northern/central IL
                                                          (sampled well by the 18Z ILX sounding). Dewpoints are currently in
                                                          the upper 40s/low 50s across this region.

                                                          Strong forcing for ascent both along the front and ahead of the
                                                          approaching shortwave trough are still expected to increasing
                                                          thunderstorm coverage over the next few hours. An initially cellular
                                                          mode will quickly transition to a more linear mode with one or more
                                                          bowing segments then progresses southeastward. Strong wind gusts
                                                          remain the primary severe threat with large to very large hail also
                                                          anticipated. A brief embedded/QLCS tornado or two is also possible
                                                          once the bowing line segment(s) mature and reach the better
                                                          low-level moisture farther southeast over southern IL, south


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                                                          来自Android客户端31楼2020-04-09 07:36
                                                            对流区感觉很强


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                                                            来自Android客户端32楼2020-04-09 07:36