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【历史回顾】HKO对天鸽、山竹强度、结构的分析论文(英文版)

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IP属地:中国香港1楼2022-10-05 03:52回复

    The destruction caused by heavy rain, storm surge and high waves induced by Hato and Mangkhut was widespread and serious, as the tracks of Hato and Mangkhut were typical of those that trigger severe storm surges in Hong Kong. When they moved to the south-southwest of Hong Kong, the associated ferocious east to southeasterly winds pushed the sea water towards the shore, and it piled up against the coast. In the case of Hato, with the storm surge coinciding with the high water of the astronomical tide, the aggregated effect resulted in the inundation of many low-lying areas in Hong Kong by sea water. For Mangkhut, although it did not hit Hong Kong during the astronomical high tide, its large circulation and fast-moving speed triggered record-breaking storm surges, generally raising the water level in many parts of Hong Kong by more than 2m.
    With respect to wind, both Hato and Mangkhut brought storm-to-hurricane force winds to different parts of the territory. In particular, the wind strength over Hong Kong during the passage of Mangkhut was generally stronger than that of the TCs necessitating the issuance of No. 10 Signals in the last three decades, including Typhoon York in 1999, Severe Typhoon Vicente in 2012 and Super Typhoon Hato in 2017 (see Table 1 and Figure 2). The maximum 60-min mean wind speeds recorded at Waglan Island and Cheung Chau (locations of places in Hong Kong shown in Figure 2; same below) were 161kmh–1 and 157kmh–1, respectively. Both are the second highest records at the corresponding stations, just below the record high of Ellen in 1983. Gusts over 150kmh–1 were registered in most parts of the territory on 16 September 2018, and a maximum gust of 256kmh–1 was recorded at Tate's Cairn (anemometer located 587m above mean sea level), ranking after Wanda in 1962 and Ruby in 1964. A maximum 10-min mean wind of 124kmh–1 was also registered on the North Point anemometer located inside the Victoria Harbour, the first time sustained hurricane force winds were recorded at the station since the start of its operation in 1998.
    Table 1. Maximum 10-min mean wind speeds, maximum 60-min mean wind speeds and maximum gusts recorded in Hong Kong during the passage of Mangkhut and tropical cyclones necessitating the issuance of No. 10 Signals in the last three decades (York, Vicente and Hato).



    IP属地:中国香港3楼2022-10-05 03:58
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      IP属地:中国香港6楼2022-10-05 04:09
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        IP属地:中国香港7楼2022-10-05 04:13
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          IP属地:中国香港8楼2022-10-05 04:19
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            IP属地:中国香港9楼2022-10-05 04:25
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              IP属地:中国香港10楼2022-10-05 04:28
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                IP属地:中国香港11楼2022-10-05 04:36
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                  因为吞楼严重,所以大部分内容只能截图。
                  说一些总结、评析和疑问︰
                  文中和列表中相当一部分内容在年报中已有提及。个别风速数据与年报有细微出入。
                  文中表示天鸽CI值在8月23日上午10时正达到6.0-6.5,说法有误,因为DT值6.5仅维持了极短时间,而实际上HKO也不是单帧定强。HKO初报10分钟175km/h,可见HKO分析出的CI值应该是5.5-6.0,时间点是上午11时正。
                  文中提供了把黄茅洲实测风速换算到海拔10米的公式。根据黄茅洲实测,天鸽巅峰风速可以评为10分钟195km/h。但除此以外,其他指标不支持这个强度。HKO最终定强10分钟185km/h,也在合理范围。
                  文中提到,9月16日中午12时正至1时正,山竹北侧眼墙经过黄茅洲时,测得气压960.6hPa。中心气压很可能在955hPa以下。HKO评为950hPa,不算很激进。再看横澜岛和长洲泳滩(文中没有列出)的风速实测,直接证明近岸强度并不止2分钟42m/s。
                  这么看来,山竹与天鸽一样,临近登陆时减弱。
                  不过,HKO评定山竹最接近香港时风速10分钟175km/h,相当于彩虹巅峰,则有高估之嫌。按照文中数据,HKO对天鸽的定强在雷达测风的可能区间之内,对山竹的定强则超出雷达测风的可能区间。
                  作者认为山竹移速快、受陆地影响、结构特殊,不适合采用德沃夏克分析法定强,但未有解释定强依据到底是什么。本文的最大缺失即在于此。


                  IP属地:中国香港12楼2022-10-05 04:44
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                    IP属地:浙江来自Android客户端14楼2022-10-05 16:59
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                      山竹有些近岸增强,後减弱


                      IP属地:中国香港来自Android客户端15楼2022-10-05 21:36
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                        天鸽核心小,基本影响不到市区,而山竹高强度大范围长时间的影响,风毁远远大于天鸽。山竹是新世纪以来唯一能令我家窗漏水的台风。所以,单看核心带风速评一个台风强度是不太合适的。


                        IP属地:中国香港来自Android客户端16楼2022-10-06 02:32
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                          单纯按德法分析山竹登陆肯定打不过天鸽,之所以这么多人吹山竹登陆就是因为体感太暴力了,对于不太了解台风的人来说亲身感受就是判断台风强弱最直接的标准。北侧核心雨带横扫港深,持续大风大雨一天多,而且港深市区风速实测也非常好。配一张深圳市区的图,这可是深圳啊,不是热带雨林,真的挺震撼的


                          IP属地:广东来自iPhone客户端17楼2022-10-06 14:06
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                            天鸽在澳门是最强十号之一,在香港却成了最弱十号之一。山竹在香港十号记录中算中上等了,离岛实测支持42-45m/s左右。


                            IP属地:美国来自iPhone客户端18楼2022-10-06 15:12
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                              台风“山竹”时的一些实测
                              上川岛国家站曾录得118.9km/h(33m/s,12级)的持续风和158.5km/h(44m/s,14级)的阵风,最低海平面气压967.0hpa,这个站仅离CMA认为的登陆点20-50km

                              东沙岛只录得了108.1km/h(30m/s,11级)的持续风和981.2hpa的海平面最低气压



                              IP属地:广东19楼2022-10-06 17:12
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